In Maryland, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans more than two to one, but for the past eight years, Republican Gov. Larry Hogan has maintained some of the highest approval ratings of any governor in the country.
If Hogan's pick, Kelly Schulz, wins the Republican primary contest Tuesday, Democrats face a tight race in November, according to a poll conducted last month by Goucher College in partnership with WYPR and The Baltimore Banner.
Schulz served in Hogan's cabinet for seven years, most recently as secretary of the Maryland Department of Commerce and before that, as secretary of the state Department of Labor. Nearly a quarter of likely Democratic voters would consider supporting Schulz in November, respondents said.
Maryland has a lot of moderate Democrats
Democrats haven't been able to elect a governor in Maryland since 2010 with former Gov. Martin O'Malley, and Hogan has been enormously popular in the state. He's an outspoken opponent of former President Donald Trump, is bullish when it comes to cutting taxes but is moderate on most social issues.
Democrats' desire to take back the top office in the state has lead to a nine-way primary race, but some of the more progressive options may be too far to the left for many of Maryland's Democratic voters, roughly half of whom described themselves as "moderate" in the recent poll.
"For Democrats who would really like a return to single-party government in Maryland, they look at Kelly Schulz as certainly the greatest threat to that," says Mileah Kromer, the director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College.
On the other hand, Dan Cox, a Republican member of the Maryland House of Delegates who has been endorsed by Trump, seems to present an opportunity for Democrats. According to last month's poll, 84% of Democrats would not consider supporting Cox in November.
And strictly from a numbers standpoint, any candidate that hopes to become Maryland's next governor needs the backing of at least some registered Democrats to win. Dan Cox would be much easier for Democrats to beat than Schulz, says Kromer.
The DGA spends on ads for Cox
Another Goucher poll last October found something similar. Voters were asked to choose between a Republican like either Trump or Hogan and a progressive or moderate Democrat.
"And what we found is a Republican like Hogan is competitive, or even bests a moderate or progressive Democrat, and a Republican like Trump, on the other hand, gets blown out of the water," says Kromer.
That may be why the Democratic Governors Association has spent more than $1 million airing ads in the Republican contest — like the group did in Illinois. State Republican leaders say the ads are designed to help Cox win Tuesday's primary, giving Democrats a leg up in November, but the DGA says they're designed to be attack ads and that they're starting the general election fight early.
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