How do we know if climate change is playing a role in the current heatwave? Are conditions expected to get worse?
Experts at the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University have been studying those questions.
WSKG’s climate reporter Rebecca Redelmeier spoke with Jessica Spaccio, a climatologist at the center, about what's causing this heat wave and which areas are most vulnerable.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
REBECCA REDELMEIER, HOST:
Jessica, thanks so much for talking with me.
SPACCIO:
Thank you for having me.
REDELMEIER:
So how does climate change factor in to the heat we're experiencing right now?
SPACCIO:
So basically, climate change is affecting everything in the weather that we're seeing now. It's kind of always in the background. With climate change we're seeing our atmosphere is warming. So if we have a warmer atmosphere, that base level is already warmer. So it's just it's easier to get to these extremes.
I can say it is typical that we do get hot days in summer. So this isn't completely crazy, to have these warm temperatures. We probably would have been warm this week without climate change. But it’s not just a 90 degree heat wave — we're looking at a 94 degree heat wave, you know. So it's making things kind of more extreme.
REDELMEIER:
New Yorkers are used to some hot days every summer. So how do we know that it's climate change contributing to this hotter weather?
SPACCIO:
So the research is getting better at that, looking at how much climate change is playing a role in specific events. We do have this high pressure, this heat dome, so that's kind of like the weather factor behind it, that's what's causing these warmer days. But we wouldn't have gotten this hot if we didn't already have an atmosphere that's warmer because of climate change.
REDELMEIER:
As the heat continues, are certain areas or communities more vulnerable?
SPACCIO:
Oh yeah, absolutely. We've got the urban heat islands. So those places that have a lot of pavement and impervious surfaces and fewer trees are just going to be hotter than other places, because heat gets trapped there, you've got less kind of airflow and things to cool things down. So anyone who lives in those kinds of conditions are going to see temperatures warmer than if you're in more of a country condition.
And then typically we do, unfortunately, see that people of color and people who live in poorer communities are typically those that are in these urban settings and maybe can't afford or don't have air conditioning. And then anyone with any kind of pre-existing health conditions, or usually the young and the old, are more at risk for health and heat issues.
REDELMEIER:
What about agriculture? We have a lot of farming here in the Southern Tier. How is the industry being affected?
SPACCIO:
The dairy industry comes to mind because I know that the dairy cows need to stay cool. Some places have been fitted with nice cooling fans and misters to keep the cows cool, so that helps. But if they get too warm, they get heat stress, so they produce less milk and have issues with calving.
Farmers also have to work really hard, and just because it's hot, sometimes things need to get done regardless. So that's stress on the farmers as well.
REDELMEIER:
What about the rest of the summer? Is it going to stay hot like this?
SPACCIO:
We usually default to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. They do a great job of putting out the outlooks. In the shorter term, it looks like the heat is going to continue; their 8-14 day outlook, which takes us to the beginning of July, is calling for high probabilities of above normal temperatures.
And when we look at the summer as a whole — the June, July, August outlook — they're predicting above normal temperatures for the season as well. That doesn't necessarily mean heat waves, and it doesn't mean you can't get some cooler days, because it's an average of the three month period. But overall, they're expecting above normal temperatures.
REDELMEIER:
And what about next year or the year after? What generally can we expect?
SPACCIO:
Something I expect to see in the future, as we continue to warm, we probably will see an increase in these heat wave events. It's not something I've seen yet, but we have seen an increase in hot days and hot nights. We're seeing more warm records broken than cold records. So we are seeing more heat.
Basically, we're living in this warming atmosphere, which is going to set the stage. It's just easier to get up to these high temperatures.
REDELMEIER:
Well, it looks like it's going to be staying hot, but thank you so much for chatting with me.
SPACCIO:
Thanks, it was nice speaking with you.
REDELMEIER:
That was Jessica Spaccio from the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University.