Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo appears poised to complete a stunning political comeback in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for New York City mayor. That’s according to a new Marist Poll, which finds Cuomo is the top choice of 38 percent of likely voters, including those who remain undecided. State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is second in the large field, which will be winnowed by ranked-choice voting.
Marist estimates Cuomo would break the 50 percent threshold in the seventh round. Mamdani had support from 27 percent of likely voters, signaling the race has tightened as early voting continues. The poll finds 11 percent of voters are undecided about their first choice, and another 11 percent left Cuomo and Mamdani off their list completely. City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams and Comptroller Brad Lander each had support of 7 percent of likely voters. Cuomo’s support remains strongest in the Bronx and Queens. The poll finds 72 percent of likely primary voters want the Democratic candidate for mayor to oppose President Trump as much as possible, and 77 percent say the city is going in the wrong direction under first-term Mayor Eric Adams. The poll was conducted last week and has a margin of error of 4.3 points.
WAMC’s Ian Pickus spoke with Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
How has this race changed?
Well, I think what we're seeing here is we did a poll in May, and of course, now we're getting much closer to the actual primary, and we see Cuomo still with the lead, double digit, as you reported. But you know, the race has gotten closer. When Cuomo was ahead in May by 19 points, including undecided, that number is now 11. When in May, in the ranked choice voting, he was crossing the magical 50% mark in the fifth round, it now is the seventh round, which if you win, it doesn't matter ultimately what round it is. But he was getting 60% in the last round against Mamdani, and now it's 55%, so he's still got a lead. His cushion is not as great as it was. We see a difference largely among the Latino vote, which was his last time and now is narrowly for Mamdani.
Say more about how things have shifted. I understand his support still seems to be coming from the outer boroughs, mainly.
Yes, his best places are Queens, Staten Island and the Bronx. He also is doing better right now than he was in our previous poll in Manhattan. The worst place for him, or alternatively, the best place for Mamdani, is in in Brooklyn. The large borough. And that is very similar picture as it was a month ago. The numbers a little bit more in Mamdani’s favor. Cuomo’s numbers are very strong in the outer boroughs, as you suggest, he's also doing well among Black and Jewish voters and people who say they're liberal. Interestingly, people say they're liberal are with Cuomo; people who say they're very liberal, the more progressive group go overwhelmingly for Mamdani. So that's where he's picking up his support.
Is it fair to say that this is a two-person race?
Yeah, I think, you know, we don't like to sort of rule out things, but you know, at this point in the contest, with the debates now done, and voters are focusing a lot in following the race more closely, the other people are in single digits, so they’ve got a lot of ground to cover in a very short time. As far as Cuomo and Mamdani are concerned, we do see, as you indicated, 11% remain undecided, and there are in the ranked-choice voting another 11%, a different group, happens to be the same number, who are neither putting Cuomo nor Mamdani on their ranked coice rating of five people, and so you do have a lot of voters still on the table. Cuomo’s numbers haven't really changed the difference. And the reason it's closer is because Mamdani’s numbers have increased, and so the race has gotten closer than it was. I think there's a lot of interest in the ranked choice voting. And I'll say that people can vote up to five people in their ranking. And the average number of candidates a voter selects is 3.2, so25% are doing first choice and leave, and 37% are doing all five candidates. So a lot of different behavior with voters when facing the ranked-choice voting sytem.
Now, presumably, if you're a voter and you have those five slots, and let's say you don't love Andrew Cuomo, but you do include him in your top five, that does redound to his ultimate success.
Well, what happens is, and the way it works is, each round, you knock out the lower person, and then that vote gets redistributed. So the reason why it takes so many rounds is the first elimination are the people who have 1%, 2% so there's not a lot to distribute. Then when you get in the later rounds, you know, the fifth round, the sixth round, whether you start talking about Adams and Stringer and people like that, and then at least you have, you know, between 5 and 10% for each of them to get distributed. And you want to be on the ratings and rankings of those. You want to be a lot of second choices.
We’re seeing a cross endorsement pattern between Mamdani and Lander. And interestingly, the second choice of the Mamdani people is Lander, and the second choice of the Lander people is Mamdani, so the cross endorsement makes sense. The second choice of the Cuomo supporters is no one. The Cuomo people are more likely to vote and cast their ballot for Cuomo and then leave, wrap it up at one and done. So Cuomo, in order to get to 50%, because he starts in the low 40s on the ranked-choice voting, he needs to get this support down the line from these other voters. He has to get some of that to get to50. That's what he's doing, but not overwhelmingly.
Mamdani is doing what I think an underdog in this kind of race should be doing, which is projecting a lot of confidence and talking about the fact that the race is tightening and they've got momentum and so on. But looking at your poll, do you see a path where Mamdani could spring a surprise win here?
Only if he captures a lot of the undecided and people who are not putting Cuomo nor Mamdani on their ballot, ultimately from one of the others to Mamdani in their first or second choice, and that's how he could close the gap. There are a significant number of people still on the fence, and what they do in the closing week, as people are already starting to vote, of course, that will determine it. So there are people, a large number, still on the table. If this was just a normal election process and someone was ahead by 11 points in the closing week with people already started voting, that would be probably enough for in this case Cuomo to win a plurality and win the election. But because of the ranked-choice system, and if you're not getting support as a second or third preference from other candidates, then it's a little more in doubt. So it democratizes the process, but puts a little more uncertainty into it, which is a long answer to say that Mamdani is definitely in Cuomo’s rearview mirror.
Just one more thing while I have you. You've been paying attention to New York politics forever. I know we're in an era when it's very hard to be surprised by politics. But what do you make of the likelihood, as we're speaking, that Cuomo could complete yet another comeback like this?
Well, right now, he’s in front and with all the analysis, it's always better to be ahead than behind, and he is ahead, and a large part has to do with the fact that 72% of likely Democratic primary voters in New York City really want a candidate who will draw a line in the sand over Donald Trump, that he'll stand up to Trump and be tough. And Cuomo talking about the experience he has and the image he projects is in that position where he looks very strong in opposing President Trump. And right now that is something that matters a lot for New York primary voters, for Democrats.
