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The Empire State is alright.
More voters think New York is headed in the right direction than those who don’t, according to a new poll — a positive sign for incumbent Democrats and an indication that discontent with Washington is making New Yorkers feel better about the status of things in their home state.
A Siena poll released this week showed 42% of the 802 voters surveyed said the state is on the right track compared to 41% who say we’re headed in the wrong direction. That’s a statistical tie — the margin of error for the poll is 4.2% — but it’s the first time in four years that the measure is positive.
“To me, this is sort of a combination of a fiscal and a political question because if you like the political leader, you tend to think things are moving in the right direction,” poll spokesperson Steven Greenberg said.
It’s also a measure of optimism (or pessimism) about the economy.
“It really tells you what the voters’ mood is,” said Fred Thiele, a former state assemblymember.
And that mood is that people are feeling better about their lives at home than they are about the direction of the country as a whole, he said. Siena found 59% of New Yorkers surveyed thought the country is heading in the wrong direction, compared to 33% who think it’s on the right track. The polling on that question has been consistent for roughly a year.
This tidal picture of the electorate is important for both parties as they plot courses in next year’s state elections. Democrats hope President Donald Trump’s actions will sour voters on the Republican brand. Republicans, meanwhile, hope voters will be more focused on problems at home and give GOP candidates a shot to tackle persistent talking points about crime and people moving out of the state.
New York’s population increased in 2024 due to international immigration. But more than 120,000 people moved from New York to other states than the reverse. Republicans argue they were driven out by high taxes and the cost of living.
Thiele caucused with both Republicans and Democrats during his three decades as a state lawmaker. He said “blank” voters — those who aren’t in a party — are a decisive force in New York elections. Recent faceoffs between Gov. Kathy Hochul and Trump have helped sharpen the contrast between the policies of the state and federal governments.
The Siena poll found Trump’s favorability rating slipped this month to 34%-61%, the lowest point since his 2024 re-election. Hochul’s rose to 45%-42%, its highest point since last January.
“You’ve got, in the public’s mind, this juxtaposition between Hochul and Trump,” Thiele said, noting Trump’s threat to send the National Guard to cities. “Hochul has been a counterbalance to that. He goes down, she goes up.”
This week in New York politics
- Zohran Mamdani and Brad Lander’s alliance has grown strained since the primary. Here’s what’s going on.
- Gov. Hochul dropped a surprise op-ed in the New York Times on Sunday endorsing Zohran Mamdani for mayor of New York City. Here’s what she wrote.
- The endorsement may cause Hochul some trouble in her working relationship with President Trump. Here’s why.
- But the move was as much about her political future as his. Here’s why.
- Transit union leaders requested a federal intervention to avoid an LIRR worker strike this week, at least until May. Here’s what’s on the table.
- Attorney General Letitia James’ office is proposing a new law that will require TikTok and Instagram users to upload a selfie to verify their age. Here’s why.
- Listen: “The Brian Lehrer Show” spoke with New York Times reporter Jeffery Mays about the new worker and vendor protections passed by the City Council, overriding Mayor Adams' vetoes. Listen here.
