Off-year elections are often a referendum on the president and his party. And this year, of course, that means President Trump and Republicans. Trump is unpopular, particularly with independents, who will be key in swing districts in next year's midterm elections.
So the narratives and the margins coming out of the Nov. 4 elections will matter — and offer some clues as to how the landscape for 2026 begins to take shape.
Here are five questions to consider when thinking about Tuesday's elections:
1. How much of a drag is Trump?
Republicans lost 40 House seats during Trump's first midterm in 2018. Just before that election, Trump's approval rating, according to Gallup, was 40%.
Now, it's an almost identical 41%.
Democrats have certainly been trying to use Trump a lot in the 2025 elections, mentioning him often in ads, and trying to tie their Republican opponents to him. Republican candidates in these elections have largely steered clear of the president.
Partially, that's because the most closely watched elections Tuesday are taking place in states that lean left — governors' races in Virginia and New Jersey, the New York mayor's race and the fight over a ballot initiative in California.
But these elections have a history of moving in the direction of the party opposite of the president's. That's because they're among the first chances for voters aligned with the party out of power to register their frustration. It's why, for example, the governor's race in Virginia has gone to the opposition party in 11 of the last 12, dating back to 1977. (The exception was Democrat Terry McAuliffe during Obama's presidency.)
It's a necessary, perennial caveat that too much shouldn't be made out of off-year elections and what they mean for midterms, but Tuesday's elections will be the first major electoral sign of the political mood in the county — and what voters think of the president.
2. Will Democrats have a chance at counterbalancing Republican redistricting efforts?
Maybe the most important election Tuesday is one in California when voters decide on Proposition 50.
The state is currently mandated to redraw congressional districts by an independent commission. But voting in favor of Prop 50 Tuesday would temporarily overturn that requirement and give Democrats the chance to try and offset gains Trump is trying to make in redrawing in red states like Texas.
This will also be an early test of Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a likely 2028 presidential candidate. The "No" campaign has run ads urging people to stop Newsom's "power grab." Newsom himself has run ads for the "Yes" campaign and opponents have pulled back the millions they had been promising to spend. A sign of the direction this is headed Tuesday?
3. Are Latinos shifting away from Republicans?
Trump made inroads with Latinos in the 2024 presidential election.
In fact, he did better with Latinos than any Republican in history, according to exit polls.
But there have been signs in polling during this second Trump term that they are slipping from the president and the GOP. That's come amid Trump's mass deportations that have rounded up far more than the hardened criminals Trump's administration promised — and Trump's lack of focus on getting prices down, a key reason many switched sides to vote for Trump.
One place to watch as an indicator is New Jersey. Though Trump lost the state in 2024, he made significant improvements, particularly in counties with heavy Latino populations. For those playing at home, the counties to watch here include Passaic (45% Latino, per the Census), Hudson (41%), Cumberland (36%) and Union (35%). Trump improved in all of them from his 2020 national loss to 2024 win. He was the first Republican to win Passaic since 1992. He won it by about 3 points after losing it by 16 points four years earlier and 22 points in 2016.
4. What messaging lessons do Democrats take out of Tuesday?
There are very different candidates running in these elections. And they are likely to serve as different examples over the next year of how to run — or not — as a Democrat.
For New York mayor, for example, Zohran Mamdani has captured the imaginations of progressives with his focus on affordability. But he's also become a lightning rod on the right for his criticisms of Israel and past tweets calling for defunding the police.
He has since disavowed the idea of defunding the police and says safety is a top priority. How he does Tuesday — and, more importantly, how he governs, if he wins — could indicate whether Democrats nationally run with his message and style, or if they prefer the more reserved approach of their gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey.
Abigail Spanberger in Virginia is running on "tradition" and "service," and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey stresses her military credentials. But the truth is Democrats are in the wilderness, and there's no perfect way to run.
First of all, candidates have to be authentic, true to themselves. Few will be able to replicate Mamdani's knack for using social media. And Mamdani can't invent being a CIA officer (Spanberger) or Navy helicopter pilot (Sherrill). What his campaign has exposed most is that a focus on affordability with a clear message and a lack of condescension toward a younger generation has been key for winning over younger progressives.
Of course, not everywhere is New York and progressives aren't a majority of voters. That's something Democrats, in particular, have to balance as the party has traditionally had a wider range of views and identities.
5. What will the elections mean for the shutdown?
The country is careening toward the longest government shutdown in American history. There is no real end in sight, but Tuesday's results may have an impact.
Health care has been a major reason for this shutdown. Democrats want to extend subsidies before they expire at the end of the year so tens of millions of people don't see their premiums go way up.
Republicans are refusing to negotiate until the government is reopened, but Democrats are skeptical they would negotiate in good faith at all.
During the longest shutdown in history in 2019, polling clearly showed a majority blaming Trump for the shutdown. That put pressure on Trump to come to the table. But this time around, even though Republicans are getting more of the blame, it's not as overwhelming as six years ago. And that has the two sides in a stalemate.
Tuesday could shake that up, especially if there are definitive results in one direction or the other.
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